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Old 04-23-2008, 12:36 PM   #103 (permalink)
Katczinsky
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Quote:
Originally Posted by highway80west View Post
Obama can probably win in Indiana and North Carolina. Hillary only gained 24 delegates over Obama, which does not clearly cut into the total delegate count, of which Obama is still 130 delegates ahead. Hillary would have had to gain well more than 55% of her tally, like to 65%.

It still a tough uphill climb, and Obama only needs 311 more delegates to claim the nominat, while Hillary needs 441 delegates. Time is running out for Hillary.

Take a look at pre-delegate count for states that have not voted yet.

Election Center 2008: Delegate Scorecard - Elections & Politics news from CNN.com
While Clinton supporters are chanting a "win is a win and percentages don't matter", the polls of the remaining states seem to indicate the impossibility or at least very unlikeliness of her winning the nomination. A win is nice and all, but it doesn't mean shit if it doesn't get you a nomination. Hillary really needed to sweep Pennsylvania and in my personal opinion she didn't do that, even at a 10% margin. All this victory did for her was to give her an excuse for not immediately dropping out. Her only relevance at this point is to attempt to convince Democrats that she should be included on the Obama ticket, or in some miracle, gets at least 70% of the remaining undeclared superdelegates to vote for her (and even in the unlikely case of the latter, both candidates would probably be at essentially the same delegate totals given the opinion polls of the remaining states hold relatively true).

But the media likes to portray it as a lot closer than it is so people stay on their toes and the candidates keep flinging mud, both of which is good for ratings.

Gary's percentage guess for Penn might have been on the money, but one thing's for sure, the 'Obama bubble' didn't burst!
"If you want to achieve peace of mind and happiness, then have faith; if you want to be a disciple of truth, then search" -- Friedrich Nietzsche

Economic Left/Right: -9.50
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Last edited by Katczinsky; 04-23-2008 at 12:42 PM.