Lake Erie which drains into the Niagara River is a large lake but rather shallow. By the end of December, the entire lake surface is frozen over. Although an ice boom has been put into place since the 1960's at the mouth of the Niagara River and Lake Erie. The boom holds back most of the ice but not all. When the ice goes over the Falls in volume the ice freezes to the edges of the gorge and builds upon itself until the river is covered in this giant layer of ice. This layer has grown to eighty feet thick in the past and currently 40 feet is not uncommon.

Niagara Falls: Ice Bridges and Ice Booms - a History

Speaking of melting, the people of Oswego County, New York will have quite a mess on their hands this spring as the melting process begins. Over the past 10 days, the county has picked up anywhere from 100 to 150 inches of snow.

Unofficially, at least 146 inches of snow has been recorded in the small town of Redfield, New York.

If verified, that would break the previous one event record of 127 inches set in 2002 at Montague, and set a new all-time snow record for New York state from one snow event.

The large area of low pressure that has been parked over southeastern Canada now for several weeks is to blame for all the heavy snow. Counter-clockwise wind circulation around the low pressure has kept a steady wind blowing into Oswego County off Lake Ontario.

The wind direction has been oriented so that it crossed the entire length of the lake, picking up copious amounts of moisture. Once the winds hit land and the slightly higher terrain, the moisture is squeezed out in the form of snow, much like we see here along the foothills during an upslope snow event.

Something interesting to note on Lake Erie, just south of Lake Ontario, is that it too was producing heavy lake effect snow for communities downwind of the water – that is until it completely froze over. Lake Erie is actually larger than Lake Ontario in terms of surface area, but it is very shallow, averaging only 62 feet deep. It’s deepest point is 210 feet deep. This allows the lake to quickly warm up during the summer and freeze during the winter.

Lake Ontario is about 283 feet deep on average; it’s deepest point is 804 feet.

Storm Chaser Convention This Weekend - Weather

I did some investigating and lake Ontario usually only freezes over about 10% usually on the east or north side. Right now the southern 60% is covered with the ice. The lake effect snow being generated right now is coming from open water on the Northern end of lake Ontario, due to the wind direction, which is rare for the area getting all the snow. Lake Erie is usually the one to generate lake effect snow for the area in question so usually they are done with lake effect snows by Febuary. As you can see by the above, Erie does freeze every year and usually by the end of December. Hence, my earlier statements, on this thread, stand to be correct. True winter started later, this year, in that area.

In my area, December was 7 degrees higher than average, January was 5 degrees higher, and this month is 4 degrees colder than average.
Canada had a 5 degree higher temp. than average for the whole season so far. Russia and Europe have also had much higher temps. this year than normal.
Last year was the warmest winter on record, globally, and this year is suppose to beat that. I do think these factors are an indicator of a sharp, higher than average, increase during a natural warming cycle. Bottom line, I think, is that the evidence is too overwelming to not take our influences on the weather into account and just admit that we are having some effect.
I guess the amount of fact vs BS depends on the source of info or link and which direction the spin is going.