On Friday, February 3rd, the latest unemployment report came out. As usual, it was another testament to the Bush administration's statistical chicanery. The raw numbers give an unemployment rate of 5.1%. However, using the mystical "seasonal adjustment," the rate declines to 4.7%. Though the payroll employment number rose by 193,000, the number of those who dropped out of the participating labor force increased by 168,000. Below is a copy of the "Not In Labor Force" numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.



(Click on the Picture to Enlarge)

This information can also be found at the "Not In Labor Force" statistics from Bureau of Labor Statistics site at: N.I.L.F. During November the number of new dropouts from the labor force was 250,000. Thus, over the last 2 months the number of "Not In Labor Force" workers has increased by 418,000. In fact, at a different section of the U.S. BLS site, the non-seasonally adjusted increase in the number of unemployed workers increased 652,000 in the last month alone, from 6.956 million in December to 7.608 million in January 2006. Over the last 2 months, the number of new payroll jobs has increased by only 233,000.This can be found at BLS: Employment

Thus the number of those dropping out of the labor force had increased almost twice as much as the number of new jobs, even when using "seasonally-adjusted" numbers. Using non-seasonally adjusted numbers for the last month alone, the 652,0000 workers dropping out of the labor force is over 3 times the number of new jobs created.

Both seasonal adjustment, and alteration of the "Not In Labor Force" workers has a tremendous effect on the unemployment rate. Those that drop out of the participation labor force (labelled as "Not In Labor Force") are not counted as unemployed. As a result their number is not included in the total for unemployed workers. With a total employment 143.07 million, and a total participating labor force of 150.11 million, there are 7 million unemployed workers. This gives an unemployment percentage of 4.7%. However, if the "non-seasonally" adjusted numbers were used (which are the actual raw numbers recorded by the BLS) the total number of employed workers would be 141.48 million, total participating labor force of 149.09 million, and a total of 7.608 million unemployed. Again, these latter numbers are the actual raw numbers, not the "adjusted" ones used to concoct the 4.7% number. Using the raw numbers, the unemployment rate would be 5.1%. Below is a copy of the page from the BLS showing these numbers.



(Click on the Picture to Enlarge)

These numbers can also be found at Employment.

Furthermore, even these latter numbers do not take into account the unusually high number of people who just stopped looking for work. It's just amazing how many more people have given up on finding a job under Bush than they did under Clinton. In fact, people have dropped out of the labor force under Bush at twice the rate they did during Clinton's last 5 years. In fact, had the dropout rate from the labor force over the last 5 been the same as that under Clinton, the number of those counted as "unemployed" would be 10.5 million, instead of the current 7 million. And this change alone would make the unemployment rate 7.0%, instead of 4.7%. If the seasonal adjustment factor had not been used as well, the total number unemployed would be 11.1 million, and the unemployment rate would be 7.3%.

Don't be deceived by a 4.7% unemployment rate. The numbers have been cooked by the Bush administration. Not only have they reclassified 3.5 million from unemployed into the "not-in-labor-force" category, they've used the so-called "seasonal adjustment" factor to reduce the rate even further. Without the "not-in-labor-force" manipulation, the unemployment rate would be 7.0%. But even when using that manipulation, the raw numbers put the unemployment rate at 5.1%. However, by the magic of the "seasonal adjustment" factor, that 5.1% has been further reduced to 4.7%.

The Bush administration is the most dishonest, corrupt, and incompetent administration in U.S. history.

EconomicPopulistCommentary

Economic Patriot Forum

The economy needs balance between the "means of production" & "means of consumption."

Reminds me of the movie I just watched about the Enron folks. Creative accounting.

That's an excellent parallel. This administration handles economic statistics the same way it handled the Iraq War justifications. They cherry pick selected statistics, and stretch them wherever possible. In this instance, they've posted a calculation that does not even come from their original distorted statistics. Even using their own statistics, with 3.5 million extra workers conveniently shifted from the "unemployed" category to the "not in labor force" category, the unemployment would still be 5.1%. But that's just not enough. That 5.1% needs to be "seasonally adjusted" to reduce it even further, so they can espouse a completely concocted 4.7% unemployment rate.

They might as well just pull the numbers out of thin air.

unlawflcombatnt

EconomicPopulistCommentary

Economic Patriot Forum

_________________
The economy needs balance between the "means of production" & "means of consumption."

my friend's uncle was one of the founders of enron but he claimed he didnt know that it was a scam.

He could have worked for the Bush administration, since they always claim they "didn't know" something when they get caught.

unlawflcombatnt

EconomicPopulistCommentary

Economic Patriot Forum

_________________
The economy needs balance between the "means of production" & "means of consumption."

The facts are, that statistics are taken on unemployment recipients. When the insurance runs out if you have a job or not it's over and you no longer are part of the statistics!

I don’t want to spend the rest of my life
Looking at the barrel of an armalite
I don’t want to spend the rest of my days
Keeping out of trouble like the soldiers say
I don’t want to spend my time in hell
Looking at the walls of a prison cell
I don’t ever want to play the part
Of a statistic on a government chart

There has to be an invisible sun
It gives it’s heat to everyone
There has to be an invisible sun
That gives us hope when the whole day’s done

It’s dark all day and it glows all night
Factory smoke and acetylene light
I face the day with me head caved in
Looking like something that the cat brought in

There has to be an invisible sun
It gives it’s heat to everyone
There has to be an invisible sun
That gives us hope when the whole day’s done

And they’re only going to change this place
By killing everybody in the human race
They would kill me for a cigarette
But I don’t even wanna die just yet

There has to be an invisible sun
It gives it’s heat to everyone
There has to be an invisible sun
That gives us hope when the whole day’s done
http://www.lyricsfreak.com/p/police,-the/110041.html

I always appreciate a good musical reference, but these long lyrics quotes aren't helping your stance on things.

Just my opinion. Take it with a grain of salt.