Facts are on Al Gore's side - Page 2

ClassWarrior · 06-24-2007, 07:44 PM

The rich do not pay the consequences for global warming. The poor do and it is not the poor who is the cause of global warming. So, the class war continues against the poor and it seems it will continue until the poor, unite, don't allow themselves to be divided and conquored and fight back, because why would the rich want to stop global warming when it is not they who pay the price?

cygonaut · 06-25-2007, 09:58 PM

Those in the deep south that must keep their anarchist, unAmerican, rebel flag waving way of life and refuse to assimilate can be offered, say, a piece of Kansas reserved especially for them.

Varuna · 06-26-2007, 07:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by digit

A comprehensive post, but I disagree that the graph proves human activity will cause warming in the future. The general relationship that graph actually shows is that a warmer planet holds more co2. If co2 didn't cause any warming at all, that graph would still make sense.

The reason it is known that human activity will cause warming is because
a) we know the recent co2 spike is human caused beyond doubt,
and
b) the physics for why a co2 rise causes warming is also beyond doubt

Current evidence suggests that co2 and temperature are related in a positive feedback. A warmer world holds more co2, and more co2 causes a warmer world. The ice core record graph shows temperature rising about 10C from glacial to interglacial periods, while co2 only rises about 50% during the same period. The 4th IPCC report puts the warming effect from doubling (ie 100% increase) co2 as between 2C and 4.5C. Lower than can explain all the warming in the ice core record.

I think skeptics (or at least the reasonable ones) accept that co2 causes warming, but say it doesn't cause much warming. Problem is that the physics behind the 2C-4.5C per doubling range is complex and those ranges are the output of climate models. Obviously it's not possible to replicate a climate model in a discussion.

Thank you for your reply. Your right that the graph could mean that heat causes a rise in CO2 rather than the other way around. However, CO2 typically rises before the temperature. Also, there is a seasonal rise and decline in CO2. CO2 levels actually drop during the Spring and Summer of while increasing in the Fall and Winter. This is because of the changes of photosynthesis on the Northern Hemisphere. If winters and autumns become shorter, and summers longer, then CO2 levels should actually drop during temperature increases, since there would be more photosynthesis.

sgtdmski · 09-02-2007, 06:46 AM

One small problem with the CO2 and temperature data. Scientist now believe and support the fact that there is a lag between the raising of temperatures and the raising of CO2 levels. Read More

So if the temperatures increased first, then CO2, it would seem that some of Al Gore's facts must be wrong. For if CO2 is the cause of warming, would we not expect to see CO2 rise first followed by temperature??

dmk

Katczinsky · 09-02-2007, 11:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sgtdmski

One small problem with the CO2 and temperature data. Scientist now believe and support the fact that there is a lag between the raising of temperatures and the raising of CO2 levels. Read More

So if the temperatures increased first, then CO2, it would seem that some of Al Gore's facts must be wrong. For if CO2 is the cause of warming, would we not expect to see CO2 rise first followed by temperature??

dmk

That report is 16 years old.

The vast majority of scientists recognize the causation of higher temperatures by emissions of green house gases. Especially CO2.

Varuna · 09-04-2007, 02:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sgtdmski

One small problem with the CO2 and temperature data. Scientist now believe and support the fact that there is a lag between the raising of temperatures and the raising of CO2 levels. Read More

So if the temperatures increased first, then CO2, it would seem that some of Al Gore's facts must be wrong. For if CO2 is the cause of warming, would we not expect to see CO2 rise first followed by temperature??

dmk

The Earth is experiencing heating, the summers keep getting hotter and longer. Glaciers are melting as well, and winters are shrinking in many places.

CO2 levels are much higher now than ever before in the past 600,000 years. This has been proven with ice core samples.

mytmouse57 · 09-04-2007, 03:22 PM

Well, to me, it just seems like common sense to conclude that you can wizz on Mother Nature's head for only so long before she starts to wizz back.

gmeyers1944 · 01-30-2008, 01:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Varuna

This chart shows the relationship between CO2 and temperature. The less CO2 there is, the more difference it'll make on the climate of the planet. Fluxuation in CO2 is related to fluxation in temperature. It has been fluxuating for quite some time, and we are in a warm front on the chart (but not the hottest). Its not a pefect relationship, but it is obvious. There has been a massive rise in temperature since the end of the ice age (20, 000 Ky). The chart time period is large, so its impossible tot ell what is happening with the temperature at this very moment. However, there is an obvious spike in CO2 laying right on top of the very last line (line 0). That combined with the previously obvious relationship would suggest that humans are a part of the current global heat trend. The spike at the very end in CO2 levels, is far steeper than that of any other time period. There is no chance at all, that this spike was caused by something natural. And since this data also proves relationship between CO2 and temperaturee, this graph is indesputable proof that human active has or at least will lead to global temperature changes with in the future..

LOOK CLOSELY AT THIS GRAPH. it IS OBVIOUS THAT TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS PRECEDE CO2 VARIATIONS. THAT MEANS THAT CO2 LEVELS DO NOT CAUSE TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS, BUT ARE CAUSED BY TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS. THAT MEANS THAT ATTEMPTS TO CONTROL CO2, OR CO2 "OUT OF CONTROL", WILL NOT AFFECT TEMPERATUTRE.

Dustin · 02-01-2008, 10:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gmeyers1944

LOOK CLOSELY AT THIS GRAPH. it IS OBVIOUS THAT TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS PRECEDE CO2 VARIATIONS. THAT MEANS THAT CO2 LEVELS DO NOT CAUSE TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS, BUT ARE CAUSED BY TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS. THAT MEANS THAT ATTEMPTS TO CONTROL CO2, OR CO2 "OUT OF CONTROL", WILL NOT AFFECT TEMPERATUTRE.

You are 100% correct.

baloney_detector · 02-02-2008, 10:27 AM

What does the lag of CO2 behind temperature in ice cores tell us about global warming?

This is an issue that is often misunderstood in the public sphere and media, so it is worth spending some time to explain it and clarify it. At least three careful ice core studies have shown that CO2 starts to rise about 800 years (600-1000 years) after Antarctic temperature during glacial terminations. These terminations are pronounced warming periods that mark the ends of the ice ages that happen every 100,000 years or so.

Does this prove that CO2 doesn't cause global warming? The answer is no.

The reason has to do with the fact that the warmings take about 5000 years to be complete. The lag is only 800 years. All that the lag shows is that CO2 did not cause the first 800 years of warming, out of the 5000 year trend. The other 4200 years of warming could in fact have been caused by CO2, as far as we can tell from this ice core data.

The 4200 years of warming make up about 5/6 of the total warming. So CO2 could have caused the last 5/6 of the warming, but could not have caused the first 1/6 of the warming.

It comes as no surprise that other factors besides CO2 affect climate. Changes in the amount of summer sunshine, due to changes in the Earth's orbit around the sun that happen every 21,000 years, have long been known to affect the comings and goings of ice ages. Atlantic ocean circulation slowdowns are thought to warm Antarctica, also.

From studying all the available data (not just ice cores), the probable sequence of events at a termination goes something like this. Some (currently unknown) process causes Antarctica and the surrounding ocean to warm. This process also causes CO2 to start rising, about 800 years later. Then CO2 further warms the whole planet, because of its heat-trapping properties. This leads to even further CO2 release. So CO2 during ice ages should be thought of as a "feedback", much like the feedback that results from putting a microphone too near to a loudspeaker.

In other words, CO2 does not initiate the warmings, but acts as an amplifier once they are underway. From model estimates, CO2 (along with other greenhouse gases CH4 and N2O) causes about half of the full glacial-to-interglacial warming.

So, in summary, the lag of CO2 behind temperature doesn't tell us much about global warming. [But it may give us a very interesting clue about why CO2 rises at the ends of ice ages. The 800-year lag is about the amount of time required to flush out the deep ocean through natural ocean currents. So CO2 might be stored in the deep ocean during ice ages, and then get released when the climate warms.]

To read more about CO2 and ice cores, see Caillon et al., 2003, Science magazine

Guest Contributor: Jeff Severinghaus
Professor of Geosciences
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
University of California, San Diego.

Update May 2007: We have a fuller exposition of this on a more recent post.

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