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Environment Debate and defend the issues our world faces on topics such as global warming, environmental pollution, and the many proposals that might help solve these problems.

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Old 11-28-2006, 02:00 AM   #21 (permalink)
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So much for the scientific validity of trying to predict the future. Again it just goes to confirm the point, if the metereologists cannot accuately predict the weather for the next 5 days, why do we assume that the models the scientist use can predict the climate for the next 5 or 10 years.

This was the same problem that scientists faced in the 1980's. Using computer models they predicted the next ice age to be only a decade away. I recall being in high school and listening to the doom and gloom of how the polar ice caps would expand to cover the northern United States. Hmmm, now I know that during the 1990s I spent a few years in Panama, Republic of; but I never do recall hearing about all that ice.

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Conservatism, I repeat is not an ideology. It does not breed fanatics....But if you want men who seek, reasonably and prudently, to reconcile the best in wisdom of our ancestors with the change which is essential to a vigorous civil social existence, then you will do well to turn to conservative principles
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Old 11-28-2006, 10:15 AM   #22 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sgtdmski View Post
So much for the scientific validity of trying to predict the future. Again it just goes to confirm the point, if the metereologists cannot accuately predict the weather for the next 5 days, why do we assume that the models the scientist use can predict the climate for the next 5 or 10 years.
Climate is not weather. Climate is the average of weather, and averages reduce the extremes making predictions a lot easier.

For example take a dice roll which is really random. I cannot predict a single dice roll - that is like a weather event - largely random. But I can accurately predict the result of 100 dice rolls.

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This was the same problem that scientists faced in the 1980's. Using computer models they predicted the next ice age to be only a decade away.
That is not true.
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